Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 47,166
2 South Dakota 42,052
3 Louisiana 39,279
4 Mississippi 38,262
5 Alabama 36,897
6 Iowa 36,004
7 Florida 35,933
8 Tennessee 34,792
9 Arkansas 34,506
10 Wisconsin 34,432
11 South Carolina 32,736
12 Idaho 32,501
13 Arizona 32,410
14 Nebraska 32,315
15 Utah 31,682
16 Georgia 31,408
17 Texas 30,994
18 Nevada 30,532
19 Illinois 29,209
20 Oklahoma 28,773
21 Rhode Island 28,430
22 Missouri 28,003
23 Kansas 26,815
24 New Jersey 25,581
25 New York 25,522
26 Montana 24,888
27 North Carolina 24,364
28 Delaware 24,325
29 Indiana 23,787
30 District of Columbia 23,533
31 Minnesota 23,036
32 Maryland 23,022
33 California 22,836
34 Massachusetts 21,513
35 Kentucky 21,497
36 Virginia 20,067
37 New Mexico 19,156
38 Puerto Rico 19,095
39 Connecticut 18,526
40 Wyoming 18,220
41 Alaska 17,862
42 Michigan 17,235
43 Ohio 16,506
44 Colorado 15,987
45 Pennsylvania 15,283
46 Washington 13,944
47 West Virginia 11,936
48 Hawaii 10,323
49 Oregon 9,805
50 New Hampshire 7,436
51 Maine 4,534
52 Vermont 3,230

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Dakota 1,034
2 North Dakota 994
3 Montana 748
4 Wisconsin 720
5 Wyoming 586
6 Idaho 546
7 Nebraska 534
8 Utah 512
9 Iowa 463
10 Rhode Island 462
11 Alabama 434
12 Arkansas 408
13 Tennessee 381
14 Missouri 378
15 Kansas 370
16 Illinois 367
17 Oklahoma 362
18 New Mexico 361
19 Indiana 349
20 Alaska 327
21 Kentucky 321
22 Mississippi 286
23 Minnesota 256
24 Nevada 255
25 Puerto Rico 244
26 Colorado 237
27 Texas 221
28 Ohio 208
29 Michigan 206
30 Louisiana 203
31 North Carolina 202
32 South Carolina 197
33 Florida 176
34 Georgia 167
35 West Virginia 162
36 Connecticut 149
37 Pennsylvania 147
38 Virginia 137
39 Arizona 136
40 Massachusetts 136
41 California 128
42 Delaware 123
43 New Jersey 121
44 Maryland 107
45 Washington 102
46 Oregon 95
47 New York 90
48 District of Columbia 77
49 Hawaii 74
50 New Hampshire 69
51 Vermont 32
52 Maine 26

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,832
2 New York 1,698
3 Massachusetts 1,426
4 Connecticut 1,283
5 Louisiana 1,251
6 Rhode Island 1,111
7 Mississippi 1,087
8 District of Columbia 909
9 Arizona 805
10 Illinois 765
11 Florida 760
12 Michigan 749
13 South Carolina 733
14 Georgia 714
15 Delaware 696
16 Pennsylvania 679
17 Maryland 674
18 Texas 616
19 Indiana 607
20 Arkansas 590
21 Alabama 583
22 North Dakota 583
23 Nevada 564
24 Iowa 516
25 New Mexico 457
26 Missouri 450
27 Tennessee 445
28 Ohio 443
29 California 438
30 Minnesota 419
31 Virginia 414
32 South Dakota 402
33 North Carolina 394
34 Colorado 387
35 New Hampshire 346
36 Kansas 334
37 Kentucky 327
38 Idaho 317
39 Washington 314
40 Oklahoma 311
41 Nebraska 307
42 Wisconsin 305
43 Montana 264
44 Puerto Rico 247
45 West Virginia 235
46 Utah 176
47 Oregon 154
48 Hawaii 146
49 Wyoming 117
50 Maine 108
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 87

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 12
2 Montana 9
3 South Dakota 9
4 Kansas 8
5 Wisconsin 6
6 Arkansas 5
7 Idaho 5
8 Iowa 5
9 Missouri 5
10 South Carolina 5
11 Tennessee 5
12 Hawaii 4
13 Indiana 4
14 Kentucky 4
15 Minnesota 4
16 Mississippi 4
17 Rhode Island 4
18 Wyoming 4
19 Alabama 3
20 Delaware 3
21 Florida 3
22 Illinois 3
23 Louisiana 3
24 Massachusetts 3
25 Michigan 3
26 Nebraska 3
27 North Carolina 3
28 Oklahoma 3
29 California 2
30 Georgia 2
31 New Mexico 2
32 Ohio 2
33 Pennsylvania 2
34 Puerto Rico 2
35 Texas 2
36 Virginia 2
37 West Virginia 2
38 Arizona 1
39 Colorado 1
40 Connecticut 1
41 Maryland 1
42 Nevada 1
43 New Jersey 1
44 Oregon 1
45 Utah 1
46 Alaska 0
47 District of Columbia 0
48 Maine 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 New York 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 176,597 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 159,072 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 155,796 3 99
Lafayette Florida 150,677 4 99
Lake Tennessee 139,681 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 47,140 269 91
Richland South Carolina 40,706 421 86
York South Carolina 22,987 1471 53
Orange California 18,852 1836 41
Pierce Washington 11,963 2463 21

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 1 99
Hancock Georgia 5,203 2 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 637 831 73
Davidson Tennessee 480 1163 62
Orange California 453 1227 60
York South Carolina 363 1462 53
Pierce Washington 271 1770 43

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons